The Prebudget Report explained….
November 25th, 2008 by simongaltonComment?
Having seen the Prebudget report i thought i would post some helpful analysis of the situation. This is just an initial reaction - but basically it looks like Labour is going back to the 80’s with another suicide note - using limited unfunded solutions to long lasting problems.
- Government borrowing and the fiscal rules – The entire basis of this Pre-Budget Report is that the Government can offer a fiscal stimulus funded by massive borrowing in this year and the next and that they will be able to start repaying this by 2010. However, the Chancellor’s (and the Tories’) blithe assumption that, after a nasty recession next year, the economy will bounce back in 2010 is very worrying. The Government’s assumptions on balancing the budget and returning to the fiscal rules are based on this flawed assumption. Unlike previous recessions we have a profound banking crisis on top of a collapsing housing market, falling output and unemployment. There is a serious risk of a prolonged slump in which the Government’s unfunded tax cuts, plus drastically reduced existing tax revenues, could leave us with a massive fiscal black hole further down the line.
- National Insurance – The Government has announced that it will increase National Insurance for both employers and employees by 0.5% from 2011. This will raise an additional £5bn and mean that somebody earning £25,000 will be £30 worse off a year. Despite the Chancellor’s rhetoric that additional taxes should be raised from “those who have done best out of the growth of the last decade”. The majority of tax which will be raised will come from National Insurance which will affect the vast majority of people and all employers.
- New top rate of tax - The new top rate of tax of 45p on incomes over £150,000 is nothing more than a fig leaf to cover the regressive rise in NICs. It raises a mere £670m compared to the £5bn raised in National Insurance. If the Government actually wanted to make the tax system fairer they would have cut income taxes for those on low and middle incomes paid for by closing the tax loopholes which benefit the wealthy. The Liberal Democrats would, for example, tax capital gains as income and restrict tax relief on pensions to the basic rate.
- VAT rate cut – Cutting VAT by 2.5% will cost the exchequer £12.4bn. As VAT is not payable on essentials such as food and children’s clothes this measure is unlikely to benefit those struggling to keep their heads above water. Instead this tax cut will help big spenders. With a 2.5% cut in VAT amounting to £5 off a £200 TV or 60p off a £25 restaurant bill it is highly unlikely that this cut will offer the economy the stimulus it needs. To make matters worse the Government admits that the re-pricing cost of the VAT reduction which will fall on already struggling businesses will be £50m. The Government should be using borrowing to invest in capital projects such as building social housing, increasing building energy efficiency and improving public transport which will not only benefit our economy today but in the future as well.
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Pensions - The Chancellor’s pledge to increase the Pension Credit to £130 is not a new measure as it was first announced in March 2007. Equally the Government’s announcement that it would increase the Basic State Pension by inflation merely honours the commitment it made in 2004. - Small businesses - Instead of simply deferring increases in the small firms’ rate of Corporation Tax, the Chancellor should decrease Corporation Tax for the thousands of struggling small businesses. To make matters worse, from 2011 with the Government’s NICs increase businesses of all sizes will face a massive hike in their wage bills, at a time when they are struggling to meet their current pay-rolls.
- Housing – The Government’s measures to reduce repossessions are welcome as they where our ideas in the first place; however it has still failed to ensure that homes are only ever taken as a last resort. The three month deferral will do nothing to reduce repossessions of those who borrowed from smaller lenders, while the code of practice for lenders that came into force last week leaves the courts powerless to enforce it. The Government must also ensure that any additional investment in social housing is available to local authorities as well as housing associations. With private building at a standstill, new social housing will stall unless the gap left by private funding is filled. Unless local authorities are freed from the constraints on housing finance, the Government will fail to rebuild the social housing safety net.
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